Monthly Report - November 2025
Wood fibre prices nationally and internationally have remained largely unchanged over the last month. Despite the most recent reports of poor economic performance in China, daily usage of our wonderful Radiata pine logs has been consistent.
All of this tells me we are in a nice balance where wood usage in China is now in a more stable furniture and mouldings space. This compares to high price volatility over previous 5 years where the construction sector dominated with the China Government providing plenty of incentives to keep building apartments.
In that previous world, fortunes were made at about the same rate shirts were being stripped off backs. The consequences of that were harvesting contractors and transport companies in NZ were in a constant status of either over or under resourced
Whilst export log prices netted back to NZ remain slightly below preferred levels at present, they are both stable and predictable. This combined with a good demand profile across our domestic sawmills, means everyone goes to work each day not having to worry if they will still be doing that in a weeks-time.
The major wind storm events in Nelson and Southland/South Otago are now seeing a production ramp up to recover fibre before deterioration. As at mid-November the biggest challenge facing us all appears to be finding Logging trucks or rather Logging truck drivers.
At time of writing I know of 9 trucks in 3 companies sitting in yards for the want of a driver. One of the issues stated is finding competent and sober class 5 drivers. There have been many stories good numbers of applicants for driving positions but some struggling to speak through a drug infused haze or walk a straight line to the interview, let alone drive a 50+ tonne Logging truck.
The NZ public can be comforted by the fact the forest industry takes safety and sobriety in the work place extremely seriously. We have a Log Transport Safety Council and a NZ Forest Industry Safety Council full of great people doing great work to the extent we now see an industry wide safety culture par excellence.
Across the China Eastern seaboard, daily Radiata pine log sales have been in a 55 – 60,000 m3 band, slightly down on October levels. Radiata pine inventory levels are sitting at 2.7 million m3 up 150,000 since mid-October.
Cautionary economic tones remain the order of the day in China. The handbags at dawn spat over US/China tariffs seems to be abating with the illustrious (not) President Trump seeming coming to the realisation he is driving rampant inflation in to the US own economy. This is the direct consequence of US consumers ultimately paying the tariffs, something most predicted many months ago. Clearly, Donald is not a good listener.
CFR settlements (the cost of logs landed at a China port in US$/m3) have remained flat in a US$115 – 118 per m3 band for most sellers. This can be cargo mix dependent with higher percentages of long logs in the mix attracting a higher price.
There has been an attempt by some NZ exporters to push prices higher. But the market fundamentals remain weak with buyers telling them to go away. The pressure certainly needs to come off with the margin between China domestic prices and NZ logs in negative territory at current CFR levels.
All of this means prices for logs delivered to NZ ports have remain largely unchanged in November. What might have been an increase due to a lower NZ dollar value against the Greenback early November was offset by slightly higher shipping costs. Indications are we could see increases in prices in December/January if the current slide in the Kiwi continues and shipping costs are starting to fall.
India fundamentals have remained unchanged. Demand is good, prices are stable and unsold inventory in bond is minimal. Current and planned vessel arrivals appear to be at or about current sales levels.
Unlike China, India is experiencing a strong economic performance. We are seeing a very slight increase in demand for logs and the mood is generally positive. There is an air of anticipation the Free Trade Agreement is just around the corner. This will be very good news for the NZ Log export sector.
As always, please remember the thoroughly important message, it remains, as always, fundamentally important, the only way forward for climate, country and the planet, is to get out there and plant more trees”!
Allan Laurie.
Laurie Forestry.
